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Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy
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Authors: Khurshid M. Kiani (Bang College of Business, KIMEP, Republic of Kazakhstan) 
Book Description:
This book highlights the importance of studying similarity of business cycles across countries and answers the theoretical question about the behavior of fluctuations in economic activity over different phases of business cycles. This is done by analyzing cross-country data that provides sufficient empirical justifications on the behavior of economic activity to conclude that business cyles are alike. Further, the book maintains, from the recent empirical research, that business cycles fluctuations are asymmetric.

For empirical validation of the hypothesis that business cycles are asymmetric at least in the group of seven highly developed industrialized (G7) countries, real GDP growth rates from these countries are analyzed using nonlinear time series and switching time series models as well as in-sample and jackknife out-of-sample forecasts from neural networks. While importance and application of nonlinear and switching time series models are employed for testing possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in all the series after taking into account long memory, conditional heteroskedasticity, and time varying volatility in the series, usefulness of nonparametric techniques such as artificial neural networks forecasts are discussed and empirically tested to conclude that forecasts from neural networks are superior to the selected time series models. Additionally, the book presents a robust evidence of business cycle asymmetries in G7 countries, which is indeed, the answer to the basic research question on the behavior of economic fluctuation over the business cycles. The book compares spill over and contagion effects due to business cycle fluctuations within the countries studied. In addition, having known the type of business cycle asymmetries,policy makers, empirical researchers, and forecasters would be able to employ appropriate forecasting models for forecasting impact of monetary policy or any other shock on the economies of these countries.

Table of Contents:

Chapter 1: Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations via Time Series Models and Neural Network Linearity Tests, pp. 1-25

Chapter 2: Neural Network Forecasts Evaluations and Business Cycle Fluctuations, pp. 27-44

Chapter 3: A Robust Evidence of Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries, pp. 45-61

Chapter 4: Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations and Contagion Effects in G7 Countries, pp. 63-83

Chapter 5: Business Cycle Asymmetries in Asian Economies via Nonlinear Time Series Models and Neural Networks, pp. 85-108


   Binding: Hardcover
   Pub. Date: 2009
   ISBN: 978-1-60692-341-2
   Status: AV
Status Code Description
AN Announcing
FM Formatting
PP Page Proofs
FP Final Production
EP Editorial Production
PR At Prepress
AP At Press
AV Available
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Business Cycle Fluctuations and Economic Policy