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Spatial Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Bangladesh pp. 215-242 $100.00
Authors:  (Shamsuddin Shahid, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia)
Abstract:
A conceptual framework, which emphasizes the combined role of hazard and
vulnerability in defining risk, is used for the spatial assessment of drought risk in
Bangladesh. The spatial extent of droughts of different severities in multiple time scales
are mapped by using standardized precipitation index method within a geographical
information system. The key social and physical factors that define drought vulnerability
in the context of Bangladesh are identified and corresponding thematic maps in district
level are prepared. Composite drought vulnerability map is developed through the
integration of those thematic maps. The risk is computed as the product of the hazard and
vulnerability. The study reveals that the areas with extremely high drought risk are
concentrated in the northwest Bangladesh. Analysis of seasonal rainfall distribution and
rainfall reliability reveals that high variation of annual rainfall has made the northwest
Bangladesh more prone to droughts. On the other hand, higher poverty rates, dependency
on agriculture and irrigation have made the region more vulnerable to droughts. In the
context of global warming, most of the climatic models project more frequent and
extreme floods and droughts in South Asia. Due to the land use changes, Bangladesh has
already shown an increased frequency of droughts in recent years. A study is also carried
out to envisage future droughts scenario in Bangladesh in the context of climate change.
Analysis of long-term rainfall trend shows that rainfall in Bangladesh has increase
significantly at a rate of 5.25mm/year in last fifty years. However, it is found that the
drought in Bangladesh has no relation with rainfall amount; rather, it depends on interannual
variability of rainfall. Significant relation between annual rainfall in Bangladesh
and ENSO index indicates a teleconnection between droughts in Bangladesh and ENSO
index. As it is still not clear about the effect of climate change on ENSO, it is not possible
to come to a decision about climate change impacts on drought in Bangladesh. 


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Spatial Assessment of Drought Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk in Bangladesh pp. 215-242