Continuous global warming or progressive part of long term temperature cycle: Personal history with the problem (pp. 513-524)
Authors: (Ibrahim A. A. Maiyza)
Abstract: The variation and formation of temperature anomalies, positive or negative, of the upper surface layer of the ocean are key elements in understanding a wide range of physical oceanographic and meteorological problems. The study of which is of particular scientific interest. The temperature anomalies are so intensive that they may noticeably affect the atmospheric processes for example the 1955, 1962, 1966, 1968, 1977, 1988 and 1999 were recorded as warm years while the 1959, 1961, 1972, 1976, 1985 and1997 were recorded as cold years. The effect of surface warming (or cooling) can affect not only the surface layer but also the subsurface, intermediate and deep layers. The effect may affect the water bodies in both its presenting layer and core level but also its hydrographic characteristics. The thermal, haline and total steric departures coincide with the phase of the observed sea level fluctuation.
Time distribution of surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) values display both positive and negative cycles. The periods of these cycles fluctuated between 8 and 15 years. These cycles are nearly associated with the 11 year cycle of sunspots activities. Normal SSTA band occupies only 21.41%, while the positive and negative bands occupy 32.90% and 45.69%, respectively. The active period of the year is from June to August. The coastal areas are more active especially in the positive and rang bands due to the interannual variations in coastal heating and cooling. The anti-cyclonic gyre areas are more active especially in the negative band due to interannual variations in gyre strength. The linear regression and model results reveal a trend of general decrease of SST, with time in the order of about –0.3oC / 61 years. The quadratic regression trend of the mean monthly and annual SST has a parabola form. The parabolas show a decrease in SST in the period from 1948 to 1985 then increasing forward. The present Chapter may
strengthen the suggestion of oscillating sea surface temperature (SST) with time rather than continuous increasing due to the so called global warming. The cycle of that oscillation must have a period much more than 61 years and may reach to centuries.