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The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018
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Editors: Congressional Budget Office
Book Description:
The state of the economy is particularly uncertain at the moment. The pace of economic growth slowed in 2007, and there are strong indications that it will slacken further in 2008. In CBOs view, the ongoing problems in the housing and financial markets and the high price of oil will curb spending by households and businesses this year and trim the growth of GDP. Although recent data suggest that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased, CBO does not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large enough to register as a recession. Economic performance worse than that suggested in CBOs forecast could significantly decrease projected revenues and increase projected spending.

Furthermore, policy changes intended to mitigate the economic slowdown would, by design, tend to increase the budget deficit in the short term. CBO expects the economy to rebound after 2008, as the negative effects of the turmoil in the housing and financial markets fade. Under the assumptions that govern CBOs baseline, the budget deficit will amount to 1.5 percent of GDP or less each year from 2009 to 2011. Subsequently, the budget will show a small surplus of 0.5 percent of GDP in 2012 and remain near that level each year through 2018 (the end of the current 10-year projection period).

CBOs baseline budget projections for the next 10 years are not a forecast of future outcomes; rather, they are based on the assumption that current laws and policies remain the same. The projections stem from longstanding procedures that were, until recently, specified in law, and they serve as a benchmark that lawmakers and others can use to assess the potential impact of future policy decisions.

Table of Contents:
Preface

The Budget Outlook

The Economic Outlook

The Spending Outlook

The Revenue Outlook

THE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: FISCAL YEARS 2008 TO 2018

A Changes in CBOs Baseline Since August 2007

B Trust Funds and Measures of Debt

C How Changes in Economic Assumptions Can Affect Budget Projections

D The Treatment of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the
National Income and Product Accounts

E CBOs Economic Projections for 2008 to 2018

F Historical Budget Data

G Contributors to the Revenue and Spending Projections

Glossary

Tables

S-1. CBOs Baseline Budget Outlook xii

S-2. CBOs Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018 xv

1-1. Projected Deficits and Surpluses in CBOs Baseline

1-2. Average Annual Growth Rates of Revenues and Outlays Since 1997 and in CBOs Baseline

1-3. CBOs Baseline Budget Projections

1-4. Changes in CBOs Baseline Projections of the Deficit Since August 2007

1-5. The Budgetary Effects of Selected Policy Alternatives Not Included in CBOs Baseline

1-6. CBOs Baseline Projections of Federal Debt

2-1. CBOs Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018

2-2. Key Assumptions in CBOs Projection of Potential Output

2-3. CBOs Current and Previous Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2007 to 2017

2-4. Comparison of Economic Forecasts by CBO, the Administration, and the Blue Chip Consensus for Calendar Years 2008 to 2013

2-5. Comparison of Economic Forecasts by the Federal Reserve and CBO for Calendar Years 2007, 2008, and 2009

3-1. CBOs Projections of Outlays Under Assumptions for the Baseline

3-2. Average Annual Rates of Growth in Outlays Since 1997 and Under
CBOs Baseline

3-3. CBOs Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays

3-4. Sources of Growth in Mandatory Outlays

3-5. CBOs Baseline Projections of Offsetting Receipts

3-6. Costs for Mandatory Programs That CBOs Baseline Assumes Will Continue Beyond Their Current Expiration Dates

3-7. Defense and Nondefense Discretionary Outlays, 1985 to 2008

3-8. Growth in Discretionary Budget Authority, 2007 to 2008

3-9. Nondefense Discretionary Funding for 2008

3-10. CBOs Projections of Discretionary Spending Under Selected Policy Alternatives

3-11. CBOs Baseline Projections of Federal Interest Outlays

VIII THE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: FISCAL YEARS 2008 TO 2018

4-1. CBOs Projections of Revenues

4-2. CBOs Projections of Individual Income Tax Receipts and the NIPA Tax Base

4-3. Actual and Projected Capital Gains Realizations and Taxes

4-4. CBOs Projections of Social Insurance Tax Receipts and the Social Insurance Tax Base

4-5. CBOs Projections of Social Insurance Tax Receipts, by Source

4-6. CBOs Projections of Corporate Income Tax Receipts and Tax Bases

4-7. CBOs Projections of Excise Tax Receipts, by Category

4-8. CBOs Projections of Other Sources of Revenue

4-9. Effects of Extending Tax Provisions Scheduled to Expire Before 2018

A-1. Changes in CBOs Baseline Projections of the Deficit or Surplus Since
August 2007

A-2. Changes in CBOs Baseline Projections of Discretionary Outlays Since August 2007

B-1. CBOs Baseline Projections of Trust Fund Surpluses

B-2. CBOs Baseline Projections of Federal Debt

C-1. How Selected Economic Changes Might Affect CBOs Baseline
Budget Projections

D-1. Relationship of the Budget to the Federal Sector of the NIPAs

D-2. Baseline Receipts and Expenditures as Measured by the NIPAs

E-1. CBOs Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Calendar Years 2008 to 2018

E-2. CBOs Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018

F-1. Revenues, Outlays, Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt Held by the Public,1968 to 2007, in Billions of Dollars

F-2. Revenues, Outlays, Deficits, Surpluses, and Debt Held by the Public, 1968 to 2007, as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

F-3. Revenues by Major Source, 1968 to 2007, in Billions of Dollars

F-4. Revenues by Major Source, 1968 to 2007, as a Percentage of
Gross Domestic Product

F-5. Outlays for Major Categories of Spending, 1968 to 2007, in Billions of Dollars

F-6. Outlays for Major Categories of Spending, 1968 to 2007, as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

CONTENTS IX
F-7. Discretionary Outlays, 1968 to 2007, in Billions of Dollars

F-8. Discretionary Outlays, 1968 to 2007, as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

F-9. Outlays for Mandatory Spending, 1968 to 2007, in Billions of Dollars

F-10. Outlays for Mandatory Spending, 1968 to 2007, as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

F-11. Deficits, Surpluses, Debt, and Related Series, 1968 to 2007

F-12. Standardized-Budget Deficit or Surplus and Related Series, 1968 to 2007, in Billions of Dollars

F-13. Standardized-Budget Deficit or Surplus and Related Series, 1968 to 2007, as a Percentage of Potential Gross Domestic Product

Figures
S-1. Projected Growth of the U.S. Economy and Federal Spending for Major Mandatory Programs xiii

S-2. Total Revenues and Outlays as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product xiv

1-1. The Total Deficit or Surplus as a Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1968 to 2018

1-2. Debt Held by the Public as a Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1940 to 2018

1-3. Uncertainty of CBOs Projections of the Budget Deficit or Surplus Under Current Policies

1-4. Projected Federal Spending Over the Long Term

2-1. Mortgage Delinquencies

2-2. Corporate Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates

2-3. Outstanding Amounts of Commercial Paper, by Issuer

2-4. Banks Commercial and Industrial Loans and Investment in Securities

2-5. Housing Starts and the Underlying Demand for New Housing

2-6. Inflation-Adjusted Prices of Houses

2-7. Consumer Expectations

2-8. Real Business Fixed Investment

2-9. Nominal Trade-Weighted Value of the Dollar

2-10. Overall and Core PCE Price Indexes

2-11. Inflation-Adjusted Price of Crude Oil

X THE BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: FISCAL YEARS 2008 TO 2018

2-12. Food Price Inflation and Foodstuffs Prices

2-13. Total Factor Productivity

2-14. Total Labor Income and Wages and Salaries

2-15. Domestic Profits and Businesses Interest Payments

3-1. Major Components of Spending, 1968 to 2018

3-2. Caseload Growth in Social Security and Medicare, 1995 to 2018

4-1. Total Revenues as a Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1968 to
2018

4-2. Annual Growth of Federal Revenues and Gross Domestic Product, 1968 to 2018

4-3. Revenues, by Source, as a Share of Gross Domestic Product, 1968 to 2018

4-4. Effects of the Individual Alternative Minimum Tax in CBOs Baseline

4-5. Capital Gains Realizations as a Share of Gross Domestic Product,
Calendar Years 1954 to 2018

B-1. CBOs Baseline Projections of Surpluses in Social Securitys Trust Funds

B-2. CBOs Baseline Projection of Debt Subject to Limit, October 2006 to September 2009

Boxes
1-1. Funding for Activities in Iraq and Afghanistan and for the War on Terrorism

2-1. Conforming Mortgages and the Role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

2-2. Structured Investment Vehicles

2-3. The Federal Reserves Term Auction Facility

2-4. Recession Signals

3-1. Categories of Federal Spending

3-2. Medicares Prescription Drug Benefit

3-3. CBOs Baseline Projections of Spending to Support Agriculture

4-1. Tax Bases and Tax Liability

4-2. Factors Affecting the Average Corporate Tax Rate

C-1. The Potential Budgetary Impact of a Recession

Figures (Continued)

Index

   Binding: Hardcover
   Pub. Date: 2008, 4th Quarter
   ISBN: 978-1-60456-772-4
   Status: AV
  
Status Code Description
AN Announcing
FM Formatting
PP Page Proofs
FP Final Production
EP Editorial Production
PR At Prepress
AP At Press
AV Available
  
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018