Book Description:
A critical consideration in understanding business cycles is the amplification and propagation of shocks to the economic system. Many recessions seem to arise without a clearly identifiable cause or at least one of significant magnitude to justify an economy-wide recession. How can a small shock cause large changes in the economy? What are the mechanisms that amplify a modest shock such that a serious recession ensues? Despite the persistent search for a mechanism for business cycle amplification and propagation, much research in business cycles seems to ignore the likely role of the financial system. If a shock to the economy inhibits the capital allocation capability of an economy, then a seemingly mild shock may be amplified through its impact on new investment thereby snuffing out economic growth and causing a recession. This book provides new research on the field of recessions from around the globe.

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Table of Contents:
Preface

Chapter 1: What is a Recession, Who Decides When It Starts, and When Do They Decide?
(Brian W. Cashell)pp. 1-5

Chapter 2: Business Cycles in Economic Theory: Exogenous or Endogenous?
(Orlando Gomes, Escola Superior de Comunicacao Social Instituto Politecnico de Lisboa and Unidade de Investigacao em Desenvolvimento Empresarial - Economics Research Center) pp. 7-44

Chapter 3: Evaluating the Potential for a Recession in 2008
(Marc Labonte) pp. 45-64

Chapter 4: The Recessionary Impact of Stabilizing Inflation
(Federico Ravenna, Univ. of California, Santa Cruz) pp. 65-97

Chapter 5: On Accuracy Measure of Recession Forecasts
(Khursid M. Kiani, Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica, West Indies) pp. 99-125

Chaptetr 6: Predicting Recessions Using Financial Variables
(Fabio Moneta, Chestnut Hill, Boston College, MA) pp. 127-137

Chapter 7: Mysterious Socio-Economic Disturbances and Cyclical Fluctuations
(Ayub Mehar, Institute of Business and Technology Karachi) pp. 139-152

Expert Commentary

Dynamic Investor Risk Premia and Recessions
(Jiangze Bian, School of Finance and Banking, Univ. of International Business and Economics, Beijing, China, Michael E. Fuerst, Dept. of Finance, School of Business Administration, Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL) pp. 153-162

Index